OTTAWA — Canada’s federal election is about U.S President Donald Trump and his tariffs more than any other issue, a recent poll has found.
Issues that used to dominate political discourse in Canada — the Liberal government’s record, the housing shortage and the carbon tax — are no longer top-of-mind for voters, the Pallas Data poll found.
The survey was conducted on March 22, the day before the election began, among a sample of 1,225 eligible voters, by interactive voice response technology. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.8 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Forty per cent of voters identified tariffs imposed by Trump as the most important issue in the election, followed by 24 per cent of voters who identified affordability and the cost of living. Building more homes to fix the housing shortage, energy and building more pipelines, increasing national defence spending, ending the carbon tax and climate change and the environment were each top issues among less than 10 per cent of voters.
More respondents identified climate change and the environment and the carbon tax as their least important issue than they identified those as their most important issue. Tariffs were ranked as least important by just six per cent of respondents.
Pallas Data CEO Joseph Angolano said the second-place issue of affordability is a good one for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, and if Trump recedes in focus, that could benefit them — however, that’s increasingly unlikely given the U.S. president’s most recent tariff announcement.
“But if it were to change, that would open up an opportunity for the Conservatives,” he said.
The poll also showed that most Canadians are looking forward when determining who to vote for.
Asked if they think the election should be the “Liberal record of governing over the past 10 years” or “Canada’s future in these uncertain times,” 72 per cent of respondents chose the forward-looking statement, compared to 28 per cent focused on the government’s record.
The only group where a majority is focused on the Justin Trudeau years are Conservative supporters, and then by only a slim margin — 54 to 46 per cent.
That’s not good news for Poilievre, according to Angolano.
“Most of his narrative and his case, like a trial lawyer’s, has been demonstrating to Canadians that everything going wrong with Canada has been due to the Liberals,” he said.
However, the poll showed that Canadians see some opportunity in Trump’s tariffs, and could respond to a positive message, Angolano noted.
Two-thirds of respondents said they identified with the idea that “Canada will strengthen by building new trade partnerships with countries other than the United States” over the idea that “Canada will be worse off the longer the tariffs last.”
“Could it be just copium? Perhaps,” said Angolano. “But I think there’s a real sentiment among Canadians, and this gives us an opportunity to do things differently, and it looks like there’s some excitement about that.”
To read the whole poll document, click here.
This article originally appeared on ParliamentToday, a Village Media newsletter devoted exclusively to covering federal politics.
